What is the difference between the 3 “land fever” cycles
“Land fever” is a keyword that is being actively mentioned in society at this time, houses, people who trade land, making housing prices soar in many localities over the past time.
The real situation of land fever is happening in many provinces and big cities across the country, especially those that are said to have a strong development of transport infrastructure, planning to become a city or planning to go to the district. Strong investment in IZs …
Land prices in many places have increased dramatically in the past 1 year. Hot spots such as Thu Duc City, Dong Nai, Binh Duong in the South; Quang Ninh, Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, the peri-urban area of Hanoi, …
In recent days, agencies, ministries or local authorities have had to issue documents to direct the provinces to review and strictly control speculative activities, blowing land prices, and reorganizing real estate business to help the market. stable development, warning people.
Many industry experts have also “explained” the causes of the current land fever. In addition to the reasons that the supply of cheap money is pouring heavily into real estate due to low interest rates, investors realize profits from securities investment channels, bitcoin or public investment pouring heavily into infrastructure, … .Are causing real estate prices to escalate, we would like to share the analysis of Mr. Nguyen Quoc Khanh – Chairman of DTJ investment and distribution company, Chairman of G5 Real Estate Alliance – who has nearly 20 years in the real estate industry. Land fever has been going on for the past 2 decades:
Every time the real estate market swells and freezes, all society finds a reason to limit and stimulate the real estate market back to normal – but don’t overdo it. change destroys the normal, we need to look at the cause objectively.
Every time of land fever, public opinion is concerned about the causes, and often revolves around doubts about whether it is loosely managed by state agencies to fever the land, or by brokers but society every time. Does it affect the real estate market that people attribute it to the so-called “land stork” or because investors are poorly informed or have excess money but do not know what to do to buy land at any price?
And below is an analysis of some of the causes of the three periods of the land fever market:
Terrible land fever in 2002-2003
In the years when Hanoi was still developing, expectations for economic growth, foreign investment poured in, a number of small urban areas in the inner city and districts surrounding the 4 urban districts were expanded, there was a fever, houses Buying land, buying houses, people going to trade land.
But after just one night, the market suddenly cooled down because of an administrative message and the consequences of investors burying capital, the sprawling urban areas that made house prices down miserably and then abandoned, dragging according to bad debts at banks for many years to fully settle.
Large scale of land fever in the period of 2009-2010
After the land fever in 2003, about 6 years later, real estate across the country entered a hot cycle again. At this time, the scale of the real estate market is much larger, focusing on two big cities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Large real estate projects, planned by enterprises, and researched, sprouted like mushrooms.
This land fever is because investors have great expectations for the master plan of Hanoi to 2030, with a vision to 2050, and be expanded and merged with Ha Tay province to the west.
Real estate floors have sprouted like mushrooms. Investors large and small almost give up all traditional professions and only invest in real estate, nothing as profitable. Only after a period of time the economic situation collapsed due to the impact of the world economic crisis and some macro policies, and public debt increased. State bank tightened credit and some changes in planning. Investors struggled, causing the market to freeze, bank bad debt increased.
The consequence is that the economy in general and the real estate market in particular are the most difficult since the economy opened. The state must stimulate many economic packages and resolve blood clots for many years. Typically the 30,000 billion dong credit package revives the low-priced housing segment. Many real estate floors disappeared, many investors had to sell homes for sale. Disappeared investors no longer participate in the market.
And the land fever 2020-2021 appears
As scheduled, after nearly a decade of handling “blood clots” left behind by real estate bad debts, the real estate market gradually flourishes in the period 2015-2017. Facing the difficult economic situation affected by the Covid-19 epidemic, many people are skeptical about the recovery of the real estate market, suddenly in the first months of 2021, land fever is everywhere, family members leave. both production to trade land for a profit
In this land fever, in the context of low interest rates (cheap money) along with traditional businesses such as restaurants, hotels, tourism, transportation, offices, houses for rent, sale. Odds are severely affected. Some provinces such as Bac Giang, Bac Ninh, Thanh Hoa, Quang Ninh, Thu Duc city, planning on both banks of the Red River still have a fever.
One of the reasons for the land fever is: Foreign investment increased at a record; Infrastructure in many places has changed dramatically; Expectation of the period economic growth post-Covid-19; And the land price level in many places is still low; …
The consequences of this land fever are not clear how much, but from the fevers above, we have clearly seen the consequences for how many years the society should bear.
It is thought that the state management with land speculation needs to be managed more closely, the policy is not too restrictive or too loose, it is not sudden, causing the market to freeze immediately. Market participants: Project developers and brokers clearly transparent, fully legal, need transparency information will not suffer the consequences that come after the fever.
Customers and investors need to be more cautious and cannot make investments according to the buying and selling movement. Before making an investment decision, find out carefully or meet with a professional consultant to avoid the consequences of money.
Doanh nghiep and tiep thi